'Catholics in the North have their destiny in own hands for the first time' expert on Irish unity says

Addressing Finance Minister Michael McGrath directly, Prof O’Leary called for a sovereign wealth fund for the potential transition to a United Ireland in the coming years.

“You have budgetary surpluses coming through your ears up until 2026,” he said. 

“You are going to have lots and lots of your colleagues asking for immediate expenditures to win you the next general election. I understand the pressures.

My suggestion is that some proportion of these budgetary surpluses should go into a sovereign wealth fund and there should be a specific sovereign wealth fund dedicated to the potential — the potential — transition costs of unification.

“That particular fund could be dedicated for 20 years and if unification doesn’t happen, the funding from the sovereign wealth fund could be redirected. 

"That’s a prudent way of putting money aside for a noble cause which most of your fellow citizens say they believe in. You might want to have the courage to consider that as an option.”

The University of Pennsylvania professor of political science told the audience that preparation for unification was paramount to reduce the likelihood of a loyalist backlash and to enhance the chances of defeating any insurrection, as well as minimising “losers’ consent” — how losers of a democratic election react to the loss — citing Donald Trump’s denial of Joe Biden’s win as leading to instability in the US system.

Data now shows that political gains by nationalist parties in the North mirror the population and demographic changes in recent decades, Prof O’Leary said.

Cultural Catholics will soon have an overall majority in the electorate, not simply in the population for the first time, as older cultural Protestant voters die, he added.

“What that will mean is not an automatic transfer of allegiance to a United Ireland but it will mean for the very first time that the future of Northern Ireland will potentially be in the hands of cultural Catholics alone, irrespective of the preferences of cultural Protestants.

“That does not mean for one moment that their interests and preferences should not be considered — to the contrary. But it does mean for the first time cultural Catholics have their destiny in their own hands according to the terms of the Good Friday Agreement.”

Potential voters who could be swayed towards unification, such as the small but significant immigrant community, have been treated with more hostility by Loyalists than Republicans, he said.

“That is fundamentally damaging to the unionist project. It is not the only thing that is damaging but it suggests a clear unwillingness to contemplate their current trajectory, for all its poignant implications for their future.”