RWI-GEO-GRID-POP-FORECAST: Small-Scale Population Projection

The data set RWI-GEO-GRID-POP-FORECAST is a population projection for Germany up to the year 2060 at 1km2 level. Existing nationwide population projections focus on highly aggregated spatial units. The Federal Statistical Office’s projections - the benchmark for German population projections - are limited to the entire country or to the federal states. Since many local socio-economic characteristics show great spatial heterogeneity, as documented by RWI-GEO-GRID (10.7807/microm:v12), the need for a small-scale population forecast becomes apparent. Our novel data set offers a population projection with a resolution of one square kilometer up to 2060. We closely follow the assumptions on fertility, mortality and (out) migration of the German Federal Statistical Office, so that our forecast reflects those estimates at the national level, but provides detailed information about local communities, including gender and age structure. The following figures show some selected results of the population projection.

Population change and change in old-young ratio in Berlin

Population change (Panel A) and change in the old-young ratio (Panel B) between 2020 and 2060 at the grid level for Berlin

Panel (A) Population Change — The figure shows the population change (Panel A) at the grid level, comparing 2020 and 2060 values.

Panel (B) Old-Young Ratio — The figure shows the change in the old-young ratio (Panel B) at the grid level for Berlin between 2020 and 2060. The change in the old-young ratio is defined as the ratio of the number of people aged 65 and above to the number of people below that age, comparing 2020 and 2060 values.

Information Material

Data Description

RWI (2023), FDZ Data description: RWI-GEO-POP-FORECAST: Small-Scale Population Projection V2.1. RWI Projektberichte Download

Breidenbach, P., M. Kaeding und S. Schaffner (2019), Population projection for Germany 2015-2050 on grid level (RWI-GEO-GRID-POP-Forecast). Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik 239 (4), 733-745. DOI: 10.1515/jbnst-2017-0149

Metadata Scheme

RWI-GEO-GRID-POP-FORECAST

DOI: 10.7807/pop:forecast:suf:v2.1

DOI: 10.7807/pop:forecast:suf:v2

Availability

The data set is available for scientific purposes as a Scientific Use File (SUF) free of cost. For information on data access, please follow this Link.

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