Why Manchester United star David de Gea IS one of the poorest goalkeepers this season – but Chelsea’s Kepa Arrizabalaga is worse
At this point in time it is now a case of when rather than if Manchester United goalkeeper David de Gea makes a mistake.
The Spaniard was once, almost undoubtedly, the best in the world but he's had a decline since 2018 and now his future between the sticks at Old Trafford is looking a little more uncertain.
Famed for his agility and his exceptional ability to use his feet to make dramatic reaction saves, De Gea was the toast of the English top flight and was courted by Real Madrid in his pomp.
But Dean Henderson, now on loan with Sheffield United, has a serious chance of becoming Man United's No.1 goalkeeper next season.
Now we all too regularly see him making errors leading directly to goals. Last season he made four and this season he has made three - and that's only in the Premier League.
These mistakes don't necessarily make him the worst goalkeeper, though, even Ederson and Alisson - the duo now battling for the title of top shot-stopper - drop clangers.
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In the world of statistics, we've come a long way from just possession and other basic metrics and now we can even start to measure how good goalkeepers are with the help of expected goals.
Expected goals (xG) is the probability a strike will result in a goal based on the characteristics of the shot, where it was taken, the body part shooting, and the style of attack in the build up.
Using this, we can work out 'post-shot xG' which is the xG value once we know the shot is on target, and from there the post-shot xG per 90 minutes so we can compare the Premier League's goalkeepers.
As you can see below, according to StatsBomb data on Fbref.com, De Gea is pretty much conceding the goals you would anticipate a normal goalkeeper allowing - but in one of the best divisions in the world it makes him just the 14th best first choice in the position.
It's expected the Spaniard would concede 34.3 goals from the shots on target he has face and in reality he has allowed 35, suggesting his ability is about average.
Chelsea, though, have a bigger concern, in Kepa Arrizabalaga.
His post-shot expected goals tally is 33.5 but he has conceded 42 times this season. meaning on average he is conceding 0.2 more goals per game than an average goalkeeper.
And given his recent exceptional form, it's no surprise to see Tottenham's Hugo Lloris at the top of the list, especially considering how poor his defence has been this campaign.
If it weren't for the Frenchman Spurs would be a lot lower down the table - although he has played less games than some of his rivals.