What time, day, and month are the most dangerous to drive in Pennsylvania and New Jersey?

We know that driving can be unsafe. Now we know exactly when.

The most dangerous day of the week for driving in Pennsylvania is Saturday. The most dangerous month is October. And the most dangerous hour is 3 p.m. to 4 p.m.

In New Jersey, it’s Sunday, October, and 8 p.m. until 9 p.m.

Those are findings from a study by Forbes Advisor, which analyzed crashes across the United States involving at least one fatality that occurred over a five-year period (2016 to 2020), using the latest data available from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.

The study includes pedestrian deaths, according to a spokesperson from Forbes Advisor, which provides financial advice and company reviews. The data were released Tuesday.

Experts interpreting these numbers recommended caution on how to read them.

For example, the statistics aren’t saying that the overall worst time for fatal crashes in Pennsylvania is 3 p.m. to 4 p.m. on Saturdays in October. Each is a separate category.

In their own study, PennDOT officials looked at data from 2018 to 2022 and concluded that 9 p.m. to 10 p.m. on Saturdays was when the highest number of crash fatalities occurred in the state. Nearly half were connected to impaired driving.

According to the Forbes Advisor study, nationwide, the most dangerous time to drive in the U.S. on average is evening rush hour between 6 p.m. and 7 p.m., with 8,563 road deaths recorded in that time over a five-year period. The second-most dangerous hour is from 8 p.m. to 9 p.m., during which time 8,387 fatalities occurred during those years.

When Forbes Advisor analyzed road deaths by day, the highest total occurred on Saturdays — 25,907 — compared to 23,147 on Fridays and 23,038 on Sundays.

The most dangerous month to drive is October, when 13,566 crash fatalities were recorded over a five-year period.

Even though road conditions are worse during winter months, deaths decline because fewer people drive then, the study showed. Conversely, during summer months, vehicle miles and deaths increase.

The upcoming July 4 holiday is considered the second-deadliest driving day of the year, behind New Year’s Day, according to Rebecca Weast, research scientist for the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety . Alcohol combined with high traffic volume is a leading factor, she said.

While Forbes Advisor provided numbers, it didn’t explain them.

“Forbes Advisor did a fine job,” said Ken Kolosh, statistics manager for the National Safety Council, America’s leading nonprofit focusing on eliminating the leading causes of preventable death. “I guarantee, though, you’ll not get all the answers” to interpret the findings.

One question is why Pennsylvania shows more fatalities in October.

NSC figures show that all U.S. drivers registered 285.6 billion miles during that month in 2021, one of the three highest monthly totals, Kolosh said.

October is the time of year when it starts to get dark a little earlier, which could affect visibility, and may be why New Jersey sees more problems between 8 p.m. and 9 p.m., Kolosh said. And it’s a month during which more freight travels over the roads in preparation for the holiday season, he said, adding that extra vehicle volume could increase crashes.

Pennsylvania is one of only a handful of states in which the time of day registering most vehicle-related deaths is midafternoon. The others include Utah, Kentucky, West Virginia, and Wisconsin. Why is that?

A PennDOT spokesperson said that it’s part of rush hour, which sees more fatalities.

Although most of the country experiences bigger fatality numbers during rush hours, Capt. Mark Overwise, commanding officer of the Philadelphia Police Department’s Crash Investigation Division, said that in the city, at least, there are actually fewer deaths during rush hour.

“The faster that vehicles travel, the more likely there’ll be death in a collision,” he said. “But during rush hour in Philadelphia, traffic moves slowly.” You’ll see more fender benders than serious incidents, Overwise added.

Megan Ryerson, transportation professor at the University of Pennsylvania, agreed: Often in Philadelphia stop-and-go traffic, your crash is a fender-bender rather than a death.”

For Overwise, “Saturday makes sense for having the most crashes, with fewer vehicles on the road allowing cars to go faster, leading to more serious injury.”

It’s also when many people spend their leisure time getting impaired and driving, experts say. Quite a few are teenagers, whose lack of driving experience accounts for them being involved in three times as many crashes as older drivers, statistics show.

While many people believe a lot of fatalities occur on big highways, that may not be true. Pennsylvania is crisscrossed by more than 250,000 miles of roadways, many of them not interstates, statistics show.

“Interstate highways are comparatively safe in terms of number of fatalities relative to miles driven than are country roads, or even U.S. routes on which cars travel in opposite directions with no center dividers,” said Benjamin Seibold, a Temple University professor of both physics and mathematics, and a traffic flow expert.

“It’s these so-called ‘overland roads,’ many of them lined by trees and ditches, and without guardrails, that are much more dangerous.”

While the Forbes Advisor report was dire, some experts say the number of fatalities could well have been higher, given the 282 million vehicles registered in the United States. And the rate of crash deaths per 100,000 people in 2021 was 39% lower than in the 1970s, according to the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety.

What helps prevents even more tragedies, other than safer cars and teaching drivers to avoid distractions?

“We humans are surprisingly good at driving,” Seibold said. “There must be something that evolved in us to help us, like avoiding predators and knowing how to navigate to run for cover.

“That’s why it’s so challenging to develop self-driving cars. People are better at operating cars in tight urban areas, where you have to navigate pedestrians and bicycles.

“Here’s where humans have a lot of ability. It’s remarkable.”